The Woman Who Predicts Earthquakes
A Woman’s Best Friend: Quakes and Four-leggers Plus
Excerpt from Syzygy...An Earthquake Newsletter
by geologist Jim Berkland
Last month my biographer, Callie, surprised me with her successful prediction for a 5+M north coast of California. Her "window" was only 48 hours, but it hit and defied odds of more than 86:1. I figured it was a flash in the pan, but look what happened this month when she posted this:
Ok. Just can't quit. Due to my faith in Berkland's primary seismic window, the new moon tomorrow, it's been way too quiet in CA, and my past predictions for these regions, which only teased us with micros--I'm trying again. (Also, seems like sometimes when a quake in AK hits, -- NoCA is next one way or another). And, of course that gut instinct is in play for me right now.
Offshore NorCA (Eureka/Petrolia--Crescent City may be linked) and/or SF Bay Area, )East Bay/South Bay--maybe Morgan Hill) 4.0-5.0+ NOW till 7-20; Probability 60% . If this doesn't come close I may start chasing twisters in Kansas or Texas.
July 20, 2007
Wow! a rare East Bay 4.2 early on 7/20. That is another direct hit for you! When are you turning pro?
Excerpt from July issue of Syzygy Newsletter
Callie hits it big time before she gets "fired"
on: June 26, 2007, 12:15:24 PM
Callie in South Tahoe was worried about quakes, liquefaction, seiches, and pit bulls, but she was recently in the path of the huge forest fire. How ironic is that she simultaneously succeeded with what I would consider to be her most remarkable earthquake prediction.
I have criticized her in the past for keeping them small, and sending her predictions to her own e-mail where others could not see them. However, this time she posted on my site on June 22, and called for a 5+M off the coast of NorCal, with a window of only forty-eight hours, which has no more than a one in fifty chance of being right. Following a 3.6M on June 23rd (about 44 miles SE of Eureka), she again posted and affirmed her prediction for a 5+M off the coast. The 5.1 hit off the coast of Eureka the very next day, within her original 48-hr. window. The USGS listing of 5+M quakes within 220 miles of Eureka since 1973 shows a total of 57 quakes of 5.0-5.9M, eleven of 6.0-6.9M and six of 7.0-7.2M. This represents an average of one 5+ every 168 days, so any two-day window is bucking odds of 86:1 against. Callie did it.
My best prediction of 6.5-7.0M in Santa Clara County for the week of October 14-21, 1989 beat odds of 4000:1 as no such quake had occurred since July 1, 1911 (more than 4100 weeks). Folks, Callie joins an exclusive club and I am happy to recognize her recent success with one of my exclusive 100% Seismic Sentry Award Ribbons...JOB
You might well consider the previous Callie successful prediction to be a good "Fringe" item, as no known science was involved in her call for a 5+ off northern California within 48 hours. She maintains that her immersion into matters seismic has brought forth a previously unrecognized "sensitivity." With the aforementioned direct hit, who am I to deny it? Proof will be established with a pattern of similar successes, and I look forward to many of them. Was it W.C. Fields who said, "The hardest thing to predict is the future?"
The media has reported that Cal notes that her own dreams, visions, ear tones, and tuning into her current pets have led to sensing and predicting quakes in both Northern and Southern California, and even Japan. Here, take a look a 10 of her favorite predictions and hits:
1. East Coast of Honshu, Japan quake (5.8), Feb. 2, 2006
Prediction: Left ear tone, Feb. 1, Japan 5.0+ few days
Post-Jolt Comments: “I must give credit to author Cal Orey, who has been making her own contribution to the field of prediction. For example, on February 1, 2006 at 4:27 p.m. PST she had posted on my website (www.syzygyjob.com):
‘Long, long, long left ear tone (faint)
Japan 5.0+ in the next few days! Possibility of offshore NorCal.’
Call it a Cal Coincidence if you choose, but it certainly was timely and accurate for time, place and magnitude, fulfilling the requirements for a valid prediction.”
Jim Berkland, Syzygy…An Earthquake Newsletter, March 2006
2. Calexico quake (5.4), May 23, 2006
Prediction: Southern California
Post-Jolt Comments: “Cal independently predicted the recent 5.4 Calexico quake on my website eight hours before it struck. She and her pets seem to have a special earthquake sensitivity and many people may benefit from her experience.”
Jim Berkland, Syzygy…An Earthquake Newsletter, June 2006
3. Western Montana quake, (5.6), July 26, 2005
Prediction: Wyoming: CA/NV. Predicted on www.syzygyjob.com. ‘Message: 10.5, 7-25-2005. Watched it last night for amusement. Then, had a dream. Northern CA/NV and even Wyoming got significant quakes. Dogs alerted me and then there were newspaper headlines about the earthquakes. In the dream, very real shaking of the ground. So perhaps more to come.
Post-Jolt Comments: On July 26, 2005 a 5.6 moderate earthquake hit Western Montana. Plus, the quake was felt in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming—just like my dream. Also, on July 26, a minor tremor occurred offshore Northern California. On July 27, a 3.0 earthquake happened at 12:51 a.m. in Wyoming and microquake hit Nevada at 1:05 p.m. What’s more, a missoulain.com news article. “Earthquake Left Dillon Residents Shaking,” published on July 25, 2005, reported that Western Montana residents recounted that the dogs gave the first warning that something was up.
4. Tahoe Vista quake (4.8), June 26, 2005
Prediction: On June 23, my cat Kerouac, who had sensed small quakes in the Tahoe region before began acting clingy (his pre-quake clue). I also noted on the USGS Earthquake website, that a 1.1 quake hit Tahoe Vista, about 19 miles from South Lake Tahoe. I sent an e-mail to myself: “Wish cat would go away—it’s making me think quake.” On June 26, when I was working in my study at approximately 11:30 a.m. Kerouac jumped up into my lap He was too affectionate. Fifteen minutes later, my cabin shook hard. A 4.8 earthquake struck at 11:45 a.m. five miles from Tahoe Vista, Calif.,
5. Obsidian Butte quake (5.1), Sept. 1, 2005
Prediction: On August 29 I posted my Southern California quake prediction on Berkland’s website www.syzygyjob.com. I wrote, “Vision. 5-plus earthquake in southern California desert in the next week.”
Post-Jolt Comments: On Sept. 1, a 5.1 hit Southern Calif., one mile from Obsidian Butte in the Brawley Zone.
6. Truckee quake (4.0), May 29, 2006
Prediction: On May 28, 2006 I reported via e-mail; “K.C.—NoCA quake forthcoming. Affectionate a.m. purring, the pre-quake thingy – distant now. NoCA is coming with 3.5-4.5+ through the 31st as I predicted on Berkland’s board. Headache as well. Anxiety earlier for no reason. On shore or off.
Post-Jolt Comments: Region: Northern California. An earthquake hit 14 miles West of Truckee, CA.
7. Aleutian Islands, AK quake (7.5), July 8, 2006
Prediction: On July 2, 2005 at 10:48 a.m. I wrote: “I’m sensing that the swarm of recent quakes in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands may create another tsunami warning for the PNW before July 17. Just a gut instinct.”
Post-Jolt Comments: On July 9, 2006 at 11:40:04 a.m. a 7.5 downgraded to a 6.7 hit region Aleutian IS, AK. It was reported: “A strong earthquake has occurred, but a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska coast…”
8. Off the East Coast of Honshu, Japan quake (6.0), Oct. 11, 2006
Prediction: On Oct. 10, 2006 at 7:21 p.m. I reported: “5.0+ Japan or offshore within 48 hours; second potential place offshore NoCA near Eureka or Crescent City within 48 hours, 4.0+.
Post-Jolt Comments: On Oct. 11, 2005 at 9:58 a.m. a 6.0 hit off the east coast of Honshu, Japan. Geologist, Jim Berkland, noted: “No [doubt] you scored a bullseye. You will make a believer out of me yet. Of course, the judges had to upgrade it from a 5.8 to 6.0 to meet my criteria for a successful Japan hit. (I wonder what you had to pay the seismologists for the upgrade.) Send them a free book.”
9. Eureka quake (5.4), Feb. 26, 2007
Place NoCA/OR on/offshore 5.5+
Time: By Feb. 25th
Post-Jolt Comments: Berkland wrote: “I wish Callie had posted it on my site, but there is no doubt she predicted the Eureka quake by the 25th of February. Well, she missed the magnitude by 0.1, this was a short term 90% hit. Who did better?”
10. Lake Pillsbury quake (5.0), Apr. 18, 2007
Prediction: Ukiah, 4.0-5.0+, by Apr 25. A hunch…and since history is repeating itself in NY with a storm…1869, 5.6 Ukiah.
Post-Jolt Comments: A moderate earthquake occurred at 1:42 am on Weds., Apr 18, 2007. The magnitude 5.0 event occurred 9 miles of Lake Pillsbury, CA; 23 miles of Ukiah…
Well the results are in and Callie wins the $50 bet! Woman beats Man and NorCal beats SoCal (so what else is new?) The 5.0M near Lake Pillsbury happened on the 101st anniversary of the Big One is S.F., just hours after the New Moon/Perigee confluence of 5+ hrs.” NOTE: The USGS and other seismological stations downgraded this quake to a 4.8.